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Moneyball, Sabermetrics and Newcastle United.

Moneyball: The Art Of Winning An Unfair Game, is an account, by Michael Lewis, which essentially details how the General Manager of the Oakland A’s baseball team, Billy Beane, used statistics to change the way he bought players – with pretty spectacular results.

The Oakland A’s weren’t able to pay much, comparatively, to the big franchises – The New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox – so the book shows how Beane used the intelligence of university-educated mathematicians to change ‘the rules’; to select previously discarded players who didn’t look right, according to scouts brought up on long-held ideas of what assets a player should have, and what he should look like.

The book’s now about to be made into a film, starring Brad Pitt as Beane, and the lessons within are being used by sports teams across the world. Liverpool, in particular, are said to be leading the way in the UK, led by the Red Sox owner, John Henry – a man described in the book as having, “an instinctive feel for the way statistical analysis could turn up inefficiencies in human affairs”.

What I took from the book, though, was not the joy to be had from statistical analysis, but simply the psychology behind why humans act as they do. According to Lewis, Beane ‘failed’ as a major league player himself because of his psyche. It wasn’t that his body was incapable of it, or that he lacked the talent – indeed quite the opposite – but he simply couldn’t think his way to success. He didn’t believe he could do it.

So as a General Manager, he went looking for players who were the exact opposite to him. They had been discarded, thought of as not having the right body. Beane looked at their performances, ignored what his eyes saw, and backed the stats. Football requires fitness as a basic – but it could translate as giving players in ‘lower’ divisions a chance they haven’t yet had.

For that, read Ligue 1 & the Championship, more of which later.

Lewis says Beane also believes in one thing in particular. Discussing a player the scouts think has a good action, but who needs ‘reworking’, Beane says, “You don’t change guys [...] they are who they are.”

Under that theory, we are all set on a particular course in life that we cannot change. I have grown up eating too much. I may, during the course of my life, start exercising, lose weight and look better – yet my genetics and upbringing mean I will eventually revert to enjoying food and drink a little too much. Joey Barton may read Nietzsche, but he will always be a lad from Huyton with too much of a temper. I don’t necessarily agree with the point, but it is a fascinating one.

Which leads us to Newcastle United. Is Mike Ashley doing a Beane – is he the one saying, “[we need to go from] being a depressing group of highly paid underachievers to an exciting team [...] younger, cheaper and better”? Has he decided that the refuseniks – Barton, Enrique, Nolan – must be sacrificed for this to happen? Are all future players going to be Yoann Cabeye’s, snatched from successful French teams, or Leon Best’s, languishing in Championship teams and not matching their potential?

Perhaps, but it – as Billy Beane has discovered – is far more difficult to achieve once everyone else is playing the same game. There are fewer bargains available – so you have to move quickly and bend the rules a little – or change the game you’re playing, as Beane did with the Oakland A’s.

That means spending a little extra than you wish, sealing the deals as quickly as you can, and looking in different places. Ashley & Graham Carr, Newcastle’s Chief Scout, seem to have done this in France – but yet the deals don’t seem to be happening.

So is he playing Moneyball or just not wanting to spend any money on the club to the detriment of it?

As with Beane, we won’t know until his methods are exposed. As always with Newcastle United, the next few years promise to be a bumpy ride.

Still, read the book. It’s reminded me that sport is my first love – which is why I’ve written this. Tell me I’m wrong too – I’ll probably agree.

James